New senate map, by the polls.  Best case scenario for the democrats is 55-45; worst case 54-46. 

Our first race of 2010 is behind us with some unexpected results.  Using the latest polls, here's how the 2010 elections look:

Below is an updated map based upon the most recent polls for the 2010 senate election.

The summer I was a White House intern we met for the ritual of having our picture taken with the president.  Before the picture was taken, Bush and Cheney spent about an hour answering questions and discussing topics of our choice.  Out of that conversation came a wide array of quotes, which we as interns wrote down and saved.  The White House discovered we had saved them, and likewise demanded they not be shared outside our group of interns.  I stumbled on these quotes as I was sorting through my office today, and since the Bush administration has now passed, I thought it appropriate to share them with others.  As a side note, I'm posting this merely as an item of interest, not as an endorsement of Bush nor an attempt to disparage him.

Bush: I've been talking to Frist...Reid...Specter...and that other senator....
Cheney: That would be my good friend Pat Leahy.
Bush: ....the Vice President will not be at that meeting

[girl faints from standing too long]
[Bush runs over to help her up]
Bush: That's happened to me before...I was eating a pretzel...made international news.

Intern: Who is the most interesting person you've met while president?
Bush: Most interesting guy I've met...that would be Koizumi.  When I met him, he stuck out his hand and said, "You, Cooper."  I reminded him of Gary Cooper from his favorite movie High Noon.

Bush: Stopping drinking was a life altering experience.  Of course, starting drinking was a life altering experience as well.

Bush: I was active in my fraternity.  I don't remember a lot of social projects from those days.

On the 2008 election:
Bush: Cheney deciding not to run has made things easier for me.  If he were running, he would have to start saying things like, 'well I don't really agree on stem cells...
Cheney: And we wouldn't be able to get pictures together.
Bush: That's right.  At some point there has to be distance.  My old man did it just right and stuck with President Reagan until the very end, until he got the nomination.  Al Gore distanced himself from Clinton way too early and it cost him big time.  It was really politically stupid.

Bush: The Vice President ran my running-mate search committee.  Piece of advice: when someone asks you to run a search committee...do it...unless you don't want to be Vice President.

Bush: I encourage all of you to engage in public service - the Vice President and I have chosen one way - I highly recommend it...

Bush:  I met Cheney in 1989 at Camp David when he was Secretary of Defense for my old man.  I was playing wally ball and it was right after he captured Noriega.

On the most dramatic moment while president:
Bush: I was speaking in Bucharest in the same square Ceausescu delivered his last speech.  During Ceausescu's speech, and old woman yelled "Liar!" from the audience, which led the crowd to riot.  They eventually murdered the tyrant and his wife.  I spoke immediately following a rainstorm, and a rainbow appeared, ending right behind the balcony.  I thought to myself, "freedom's pretty cool, and this is what it's all about."

Bush: I don't watch the news, only read the headlines.  I watch SportsCenter at night.

Almost a year ago I posted a ranking of states by the degree of liberty which citizens of that country enjoy.  I've updated that ranking as shown by the below map.  I also slightly tweaked what measures are included and how they are weighted, which accounts for the dramatic difference in small island nations (and Hong Kong) from the original ranking.  As a note, this is not a ranking of democracy or political rights.  It is simply a ranking of individual liberty, both social and economic.



10 Most Liberal Places in the World:
1.  Hong Kong
2.  New Zealand
4.  Switzerland
4.  Australia
5.  Ireland
6.  Canada
7.  Finland
8.  Chile
9.  United Kingdom
10. Iceland

10 Most Statist Places in the World:
1.  North Korea
2.  Zimbabwe
3.  Myanmar
4.  Cuba
5.  Turkmenistan
6.  Eritrea
7.  Libya
8.  Uzbekistan
9.  Syria
10. Democratic Republic of Congo

Now that polls are slowly being conducted in many states for next year's midterms, I thought we could begin tracking what the next Senate may look like and if the Democrats will hold onto their super-majority. Early numbers indicate that it's possible, but the Democrats are at risk of losing seats.

Democrats lose Delaware, Connecticut, and New York.
Republicans lose Ohio.

Senate Breakdwon 2010:
Democrats - 56
Republicans - 40
Too Close to Call - 4

(Author's Note: This post originally only included the top 50, but has now been expanded to include the entire top 100)

Leaked recently are copies of the 2010 US News law school rankings, providing yet another example of why journalists should not be charged with composing an index.  US News collects data on quality assessment (survey data), selectivity, placement success, and faculty resources, standardizes each measure and weights it appropriately to create a final score ranging from 1 to 100.  Obviously, any ranking will have it's shortcomings, but US News has done a spectacular job of creating a ranking which is nothing short of total and complete nonsense.  Before diving into criticism, a disclaimer: I am not a law student nor am I a journalist, I am a political science PhD student who deals with issues of measurement and quantification regularly.  Additionally, I have a master's degree in political science with a minor field in methodology.  The ranking replacement I provide at the end of this post does not feign to be in any way adequate, but is far more accurate a portrayal of these institution's quality than that provided by the magazine.

1. Quality Assessment - This may be the most potentially relevant measure US News includes, as what matters more than the perception of your potential future colleagues and employers?  Some schools will claim particular biases within the data against certain regions (an east-coast bias or a bias against the south-east).  Given that US News claims to be a national ranking, those so-called "biases" are not relevant.  Unfortunately, US News does not tell us how the survey was scored, what weights were used, clustering, etc.  It is not unlikely that they simply took the raw average result without applying any relevant weights, leading to potentially biased results (particularly given the 31% response rate among professionals).  Furthermore, US News does not tell us the number of respondents nor the variation in responses, all necessary pieces of information to determine the accuracy of their scores.
2. Selectivity - First, "GPA" -or- "how to use a measure that is completely irrelevant".  The US News data is measured by median undergrad GPA, comprising 12.5% of the entire ranking.  However, no controls exist in measuring undergrad GPA across different institutions.  US News is assuming that a 3.9 from the University of Mississippi is equivalent to a 3.9 out of Yale.  Please, you're kidding right?  Second, they include acceptance rates.  Unfortunately, these are also difficult to compare across schools given differences in class sizes.  Smaller schools will inherently have lower acceptance rates without regard to whether those students are provided a better education.  This measure would be relevant only if the rankings controlled for institutional size.
   
3. Placement Success - Again, also not relevant.  All jobs are not created equal, and a job with a firm in Beaumont, Texas is slightly different from one in Lower Manhattan.  If this glaring oversight were not enough the reported employment rates are not specific to law jobs.  A school may count their student employed whether they are working for a large firm, a judge, Starbucks, or the local meat packing plant.  I would hope students are actually interested in getting law jobs after 3 years of school and a truck load of debt.  Second, the most irrelevant of all measures: Bar Passage Rate.  Like GPA, this is simply not comparable.  You cannot equate passing the Wisconsin Bar to passing the California Bar, the Wyoming Bar as identical to the New York Bar, or the Louisiana Bar as no different from the Virginia Bar.  If passage rate is to be included it must be weighted by the state bar being taken.
4. Faculty Resources - A potentially helpful measure, but most of these statistics US News does not release in the issue.  It includes financial aid, expenditures per student on instruction, library services, library volumes, etc.

What is to be done?  Well a variety of items, such as number of clerkships, salary after graduation, quality of focus job market (New York>Indianapolis), etc. should be included.  I, however, am not interested in contributing my time to further research, but will leave data collection to lawyers and journalists.  If we use the numbers provided by US News that possess any potential relevancy and continue the use of their arbitrary weightings, the resulting ranking is quite different than that published.  For our purposes we will assume that the survey responses are relatively accurate and include both peer (25%) and professional (15%) assessments.  In the category of selectivity, the only standardized measure we can compare across schools is median LSAT score (10%).  Finally, I'll also include student/faculty ratio (3%), which is unfortunately the only element of the faculty resources category available.  Due to the impossibility of comparing across institutions in their current form, undergrad GPA, acceptance rate, employment rate, and bar passage rate are all excluded (honestly, you'd have to have the IQ of a donut to think they were comparable). 

What's left is the 53% of the initial US News ranking that is provided and does not exist in the realm of total absurdity. The ranking is listed below.  Notably, the top 15 remains relatively stable (no one enters or leaves, though UCLA does step down from 15 to 16).  The further you get from number 1, however, the more innacurate US News becomes.  Within the top 50, three schools are over or under ranked by 10 or more.  UC-Hastings should be 10 ranks above where it currently is, but that is the price they pay for boycotting US News one year.  Indiana is overranked by 10, but I'm sure the US News' claims that they are tied with Illinois will come as a shock to most Midwesterners. 

Finally, the greatest disparity of any school between the below rankings and those of US News top 50 is Alabama.  Alabama provides a valuable example of why the US News rankings are so flawed.  Based on any sensible measure, Alabama should be ranked in the 40's.  So why the sudden jump to 30?  Why is number thirty having such a hard time getting their students law related jobs? Looking at the data, Alabama achieves this incredible accomplishment by gaming the absurdities of the US News system (which everyone knows they've been doing for some time in attempts to improve their reputation, which is number 43 in the survey).  To decrease their acceptance rate, they've begun offering prizes to students who apply, such as IPods.  Clearly this will increase your application rate and correspondingly decrease your acceptance rate, while maintaining absolutely no relevance to the quality of your institution.  Secondly, Alabama does not attract students from as equally difficult undergraduate institutions as many of the competing schools throughout the thirties and forties, unless you actually believe that an undergrad at Alabama is equal to an undergrad at top tier Georgia or North Carolina.  Dream On.  To make matters worse, Alabama Law has announced that it will accept students from the University of Alabama Honors College without requiring an LSAT.  Why would they do such a thing?  Obviously, despite their high GPA's, a student at Alabama Honors College isn't going to do well on the LSAT because, frankly, they're not that smart.  If they were, they would have gone to Auburn.  Furthermore, various rumors have circulated regarding Alabama's improperly reporting student's final GPA's upon completion of undergraduate.

The absurd over-ranking of Alabama should come as no surprise, they are experts at gaming the system no matter the area (see BCS 2008).  However, eventually you get caught and embarrassed, just like losing to Utah in the Sugar Bowl.  The comparison between the law school rankings and the BCS is a good one, as both rankings are completely absurd and a failed measure of actual quality.

Biggest Gainers:
1.  (+21) - University of Oregon
2.  (+17) - Catholic University
3.  (+13) - Temple University and University of Pittsburgh

Biggest Losers:
1.  (-19) - Louisiana State University and University of Nevada - Las Vegas
2.  (-17) - Pepperdine University
3.  (-16) - University of Buffalo - SUNY

The 53% Ranking (Difference Between Ranking and US News)
1.  Yale (0)
2.  Harvard (0)
3.  Stanford (0)
3.  Columbia (+1)
5.  Chicago (+1)
6.  New York University (-1)
7.  University of Virginia (+3)
8.  University of California - Berkeley (-2)
8.  University of Michigan (+1)
10.  University of Pennsylvania (-1)
11.  Duke University (-1)
11.  Georgetown University (+3)
13.  Cornell University (0)
14.  Northwestern University (-4)
15.  University of Texas (0)
16.  University of California - Los Angeles (-1)
16.  Vanderbilt University (+1)
18.  Washington University - St. Louis (+1)
18.  University of Southern California (0)
18.  Emory University (+2)
21.  George Washington University (+7)
22.  University of Minnesota (-2)
23.  Boston University (-3)
23.  University of North Carolina (+7)
23.  University of Notre Dame (0)
26.  Boston College (0)
27.  Washington and Lee (+3)
27.  University of Illinois (-4)
29.  University of California - Hastings (+10)
29.  University of Iowa (-3)
29.  University of Wisconsin (+6)
32.  College of William and Mary  (-4)
33.  Ohio State University (+2)
33.  University of Indiana (-10)
35.  University of California - Davis (0)
35.  Wake Forest University (+5)
35.  Fordham University (-5)
38.  University of Washington (-8)
39.  University of Arizona (+4)
39.  Tulane University (+6)
41.  University of Georgia (-6)
42.  University of Colorado (+3)
43.  University of Alabama (-13)
43.  Brigham Young University (-2)
43.  American University (+2)
46.  University of Maryland (-3)
47.  University of Florida (+4)
47.  George Mason University (-6)
49.  Arizona State University (+6)
50.  University of Utah (-5)
51.  University of Connecticut (+1)
52.  Case Western Reserve University (+3)
52.  Temple University (+13)
52.  Southern Methodist University (-3)
52.  Yeshiva University (-3)
56.  Villanova University (+5)
56.  University of Oregon (+21)
58.  University of San Diego (+3)
58.  University of Pittsburgh (+13)
60.  University of Kansas (+5)
61.  University of Miami (+10)
61.  University of Houston (-2)
61.  Florida State University (-9)
61.  Lewis and Clark College (0)
61.  University of Missouri (+4)
61.  University of Cincinnati (-9)
67.  Brooklyn Law School (-6)
67.  University of Kentucky (-12)
67.  Baylor University (-2)
67.  University of Tennessee (-8)
71.  Illinois Institute of Technology (+6)
72.  Rutgers - Camden (+5)
72.  Pepperdine University (-17)
74.  University of Richmond (+3)
74.  Santa Clara University (+11)
76.  University of Oklahoma (-5)
77.  Loyola University - Chicago (+10)
77.  Georgia State University (-12)
77.  Pennsylvania State University (-12)
77.  Loyola - Marymount University (-6)
77.  Seton Hall University (0)
77.  Catholic University (+17)
83.  Rutgers - Newark (+4)
83.  University of Denver (-6)
83.  DePaul University (+4)
86.  Seattle University (-9)
86.  Marquette University (+1)
88.  University of New Mexico (-11)
88.  University of South Carolina (-1)
92.  Northeastern University (+2)
92.  University of Arkansas (+2)
94.  University of Louisiana (-19)
94.  University of Louisville (+4)
94.  University of Nevada - Las Vegas (-19)
97.  University of Maine (+3)
97.  Hofstra University (+3)
97.  Gonzaga University (+3)
100.  St. John's University (-13)
101.  University of Buffalo - SUNY (-16)
101.  University of San Francisco (-3)

           I write this out of a deep concern for that branch intended to be the most powerful, the United States Congress.  I, however, have many hopes that the new arrivals in Washington will remedy this problem in the executive.  The attorney general selection coupled with the actions regarding Guantanamo have only served to bolster that hope.  Yet, after the many years of wasteland politics, one cannot help the feeling that gone are the days of Washington, Jefferson, and Adams, men who sought primarily to serve their people and preserve liberty; men who had sense of their moment in time, and made the most of it to the fullness of their ability, serving purposes far greater than themselves.  Where are our great men?

            Certainly not in the halls of Washington.  All that the Obama administration is attempting to accomplish that might remedy this scarcity, the congress seems bent on unraveling.  The corridors of power are populated with men seeking nothing but their own advancement.  Beyond their particular aspirations, these are not great men, steeped in the essence of their moment.  Those who founded this great nation spent their fleeting moments reading Demosthenes and Plato, conducting scientific experiments, or reasoning solutions to the problems of man.  Our last president, however, spent his fleeting moments watching Sports Center. 

It is, to a great degree, ironic that this should be our situation.  The American people, as a whole, undergoes a far more expansive education than ever before, yet, the great masses of the people have no idea who Demosthenes even is.  As a people we have moved toward the middle, producing neither great men, nor the severely destitute.  We have all become equitably mediocre, despite the differences in our intellectual capabilities.  While some may laud this outcome as a sign of our progress, I approach such a conclusion with great trepidation.  If we are at a loss for great men, who then will lead us to new heights?  Who will guide us in our most difficult moments?  Who will take the helm in moments of crisis?  The best of the mediocre?  Let us hope this is not the case.

The greatest fear inherent in this realization of mediocrity is a close analysis of that city which is the most mediocre of them all: Washington.  Its mediocre inhabitants aspire to the fame of the city's namesake without the desire to accomplish any great deed.  Looking at our current congress should make this situation obvious.  Lurking through the halls of Washington are some of the most mediocre individuals found within this country.  A series of mock legal professionals with no other aspirations than the furthering of their own political careers.  A cabal of pharisaic legislators who believe it their responsibility not to protect the freedom of their constituents, but coddle them away with federal gifts.  As you rise higher in party power, the mediocrity only becomes more entrenched, as the legislators become blinded by their own insignificant power into a state of complete anesthetization, unable to comprehend serving any higher purpose than their own tomorrow.

With such narrow minded delusions, the pathetic nature of the legislation rising from congress should come as no surprise.  With the intellectual profundity of a toddlers rambling, the legislators of the United States are slowly stripping away the Constitution, our freedoms, and even their own power.  First, and foremost, the American people are not viewed as people, per se, but instead a brainless mass which must be prodded, managed, and guided to do that which our leaders prefer.  They believe their occupation is not to protect our liberties, but to take them from us for our own good.  Only mediocre men could be so self-absorbed.

 Despite their progressive elimination of the Constitution and our liberty by virtue of their own self-absorption, they are simultaneously auctioning away their own powers as a side-effect of political expediency.  These legislators care only for the advancement of their careers, a false power measured in media exposure and re-election.  In so doing, they avoid with every ounce of effort available to them any sense of individual responsibility.  Any action made by the body is done in concert, lest some individual legislator receive the blame of an unforeseen mistake.   Indeed, by this tactic our legislators may simply throw up their hands in the event of some disastrous outcome and say, "who knew?" as they all voted in the safest way possible.  This sentiment is only echoed when some disaster does strike, no matter how predictable, as they repeat the phrase "no one saw this coming" like a cultish chant, dreaming that through repetition, their ridiculous dogma will become reality.  Even in this current economic crisis, many predicted its arrival, its many causes, and even its course.  Have our legislators chosen to listen to these voices?  Certainly not, as their failures would be implicated in such an action.  Instead, they rabidly chant excuses in concert, and scramble to present the appearance of action.  In so doing, they only compound the difficulties by shoveling manure onto an already festering heap of legislative blunders.

As our prestigious congressmen scramble to avoid responsibility, they in so doing scramble to heave their power as provided by the Constitution on someone else.  No longer is our congress the sole decider of warfare, tax policy, and judicial appointment, but all these matters have been cast at the feet of the president.  As the branch of government solely resides with the individual, the president becomes a magnet for responsibility, permitting congress to hover beneath the public eye and point the finger at the other branch.  Yet, this cowardice results properly in subordination, as the past president stumbled blindly across the barriers of the constitution, doing as he pleased, for not the perpetuation of his career, but the more erudite building of a mythology.  Unfortunately for modern presidencies, the building of great legacies are a result of great actions, not the destruction of lives and liberties.

We have inherited from the great men which founded this country a government of mediocrity.  In truth, the fault of this outcome lies not with their designs, or the self-aggrandizing mediocrity of our politicians, but only with us.  The leech-like creatures which inhabit government are successful in adapting themselves to satiate the emotional desires of the public.  With expansive media and the fusion of information and entertainment, we the people only desire small fragments of context-less information.  We adore politicians which grant us a feeling of warmth and security, regardless of the office or policies.  We elect officers with no sense of their responsibility.  Perhaps before attempting to determine who among a slate of party-provided career politicians would make the best senator we should first determine what it is a senator should do.  How many Americans, truly, have any understanding of the responsibilities of congress?  How many Americans have actually read the Constitution of the United States?  Taking but a few moments to read that great document perhaps could relieve this nation of our absence of greatness.

The United States, without question, is a great country: founded by great men on the great principle of liberty.  The refusal to simply go along with the powers that be by a few great men, who took on the responsibility of death if they failed, is staggering to the mediocrity of today.  In order to cope with such an idea, we have constructed a mythology of Jefferson, Adams, and Washington residing in an ivory tower, away from the fray, with full knowledge that their revolution would be secured.  In reality, their decision involved great risk, with an almost impossibility of success upon the outset of the endeavor.  However, they risked their lives simply on principle: that no man should arbitrarily have power over another.  This is indeed a great country, however, a great country cannot survive without great men.  Thomas Jefferson stated boldly that, "Every generation needs a revolution."  Perhaps this generation's revolution will be a political one, where mediocrity and irresponsibility are no longer tolerated, and great men, once again, prevail.

In those days Caesar Augustus issued a decree that a census should be taken of the entire Roman world (this was the first census that took place while Quirinius was governor of Syria), and everyone went to his own town to register.

So Joseph also went up from the town of Nazareth in Galilee to Judea, to Bethlehem the town of David, because he belonged to the house and line of David. He went there to register with Mary, who was pledged to be married to him and was expecting a child. While they were there, the time came for the baby to be born, and she gave birth to her firstborn, a son. She wrapped him in cloths and placed him in a manger, because there was no room for them in the inn.

 And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night. An angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, "Do not be afraid. I bring you good news of great joy that will be for all the people. Today in the town of David a Savior has been born to you; he is Christ the Lord. This will be a sign to you: You will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger."

Suddenly a great company of the heavenly host appeared with the angel, praising God and saying, 

"Glory to God in the highest,
      and on earth peace to men on whom his favor rests."

When the angels had left them and gone into heaven, the shepherds said to one another, "Let's go to Bethlehem and see this thing that has happened, which the Lord has told us about."

 So they hurried off and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby, who was lying in the manger. When they had seen him, they spread the word concerning what had been told them about this child, and all who heard it were amazed at what the shepherds said to them. But Mary treasured up all these things and pondered them in her heart. The shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all the things they had heard and seen, which were just as they had been told.

The last of the election maps for the 2008 campaign is upon us, and Obama is now higher than ever.  Interestingly, however, there are some interesting trends shaping up for McCain, ensuring that Tuesday will be an interesting evening.  While I think Obama is certain to win, the race may end up being closer than many of us expect.